Voters face unhappy choice - More than half say they aren't satisfied with top 2 candidates

Voters face unhappy choice - More than half say they aren't satisfied with top 2 candidates
By Rick Pearson
Copyright © 2006, Chicago Tribune
Published October 15, 2006

Illinois voters are unhappy with Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, but they like Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka even less, giving the incumbent the advantage less than a month before the election, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

The poll reveals widespread voter disillusionment even before the latest allegations of corruption, setting the stage for a lackluster turnout in the Nov. 7 election. And as the election moves closer, voters are becoming increasingly unsure about where to turn.

More than half the voters surveyed aren't satisfied with the ballot choices for governor. A large majority believe the level of corruption is the same as in previous administrations, and nearly four in 10 think that neither of the major candidates would do the better job in cleaning up state government.

"You can't do any worse than what you have here," said poll respondent Mel Danielson, 66, of North Chicago, a self-described independent who said he was so disgusted with corruption that he might write himself on the ballot. "It's like a soap opera playing over and over again."

The survey showed Blagojevich with the support of 43 percent of the voters polled, while Topinka had 29 percent and Green Party candidate Rich Whitney had 9 percent. Another 17 percent were undecided, and 2 percent offered choices for governor not among the names appearing on the Nov. 7 ballot.

The poll, conducted Oct. 8 to Wednesday among 600 likely voters, has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

Blagojevich's 14 percentage point advantage over Topinka represents an incremental increase from the 12 percentage point lead he held in a Tribune poll conducted almost a month ago.

But both major candidates had higher levels of support in the previous poll, which showed Blagojevich with 45 percent, Topinka with 33 percent and Whitney with 6 percent.

Reflections of voter unease

The high level of undecided voters, combined with the lower support for both major candidates in the new poll, is one reflection of voter unease. Another indication was the finding that 51 percent of voters said they are dissatisfied with the choices for governor on the ballot.

The disdain reflected in the poll came even before the full effects of the federal indictment of one of Blagojevich's top advisers and fundraisers could be measured. On Wednesday, the final day of the survey, federal prosecutors announced charges against Antoin "Tony" Rezko involving alleged attempts to extort millions of dollars in kickbacks and political donations from firms seeking state business.

A total of 39 percent of the voters said neither Blagojevich nor Topinka would do a better job of cleaning up corruption, an increase of 12 percentage points from the previous survey.

Looking solely at how voters rate Blagojevich, the first-term governor would appear to be in significant trouble.

More voters than not view him unfavorably and disapprove of the job he is doing as governor.

A total of 64 percent say he has failed to keep a key campaign pledge that helped get him elected four years ago--to end corrupt "business as usual" in the Statehouse. Asked to compare the current level of corruption to that of previous administrations, 60 percent of voters said it is the same.

A majority of voters--63 percent--also said they believed it was wrong of Blagojevich to accept a $1,500 check for his daughter from a family friend after the friend's wife got a state job. Blagojevich has said he saw nothing wrong with accepting the check from the lifelong friend.

But voters' negative view of Topinka, the three-term Republican state treasurer, has kept Blagojevich ahead in the race and hindered her attempts to promote her message.

Unfavorable view of Topinka

Nearly half of all voters surveyed have an unfavorable view of the Republican nominee--reflecting Blagojevich's TV attack ads, questions of whether she has the gravitas to be governor, and a failure to unify the disparate factions of the state GOP after a fractious March primary.

In the last month, the number of Illinois voters who have an unfavorable opinion of Topinka jumped to 49 percent from 40 percent.

Among Republicans, fewer than half--47 percent--say they have a favorable view of Topinka, who has held statewide office for a dozen years and was a state legislator from suburban Cook County before that.

Only 63 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Topinka, compared with 80 percent of Democrats backing Blagojevich, and 65 percent of GOP voters expressed dissatisfaction with the choices for governor on the ballot.

The results indicate Topinka, a former state GOP chairwoman, is still the victim of the fallout from a contentious March primary campaign that pitted establishment Republicans who have long controlled the party against conservatives seeking a takeover. Topinka, a social moderate, won the four-way primary with 38 percent of the vote and has had trouble gaining the support of the party's conservative base.

Topinka is also struggling to take advantage of the discontent that independent voters display toward Blagojevich. The backing of independents is a requirement for Republicans in a state that has grown increasingly Democratic.

Blagojevich support dips

Blagojevich is viewed unfavorably by 56 percent of independent voters, an increase of 15 percentage points from a similar survey a month ago. While Blagojevich saw a drop in support among independents, Topinka did as well, and third-party candidate Whitney was the beneficiary.

The poll found only about one-third of the voters had heard of Whitney, a Carbondale attorney who is running under the Green Party banner, and 25 percent said they had no opinion upon which to judge him.

Poll respondent Joan MacLennan, 67, of Des Plaines, who calls herself an independent voter, said investigations of alleged corruption involving the current administration have lessened her opinion of the governor, while Topinka's shoot-from-the-hip statements in public have diminished her view of the state treasurer.

"The things she says, they just aren't very gubernatorial," MacLennan said. "And with Blagojevich, you have all these fraud investigations. I just have no idea what to do."

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Tribune staff reporter David Mendell contributed to this report.

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