GIs face worst Iraq toll in 21 months

GIs face worst Iraq toll in 21 months
By Aamer Madhani and Stephen J. Hedges, Tribune staff reporters. Aamer Madhani reported from Baghdad and Stephen J. Hedges reported from Washington
Copyright © 2006, Chicago Tribune
Published October 19, 2006

BAGHDAD -- The U.S. military announced the deaths of 11 more service members Wednesday, bringing this month's death toll of American troops to 70 amid a surge in violence against U.S. forces unseen in nearly two years.

At the current pace, October's toll would exceed the number of U.S. deaths in January 2005, when 107 U.S. troops were killed as insurgents tried to disrupt the first round of national elections after the fall of the former regime. The body count, if the violence continues unfettered, also could approach the grim mortality rate of November 2004, when 137 U.S. troops were killed during fierce fighting in Fallujah and elsewhere in Iraq.

The latest spurt of violence comes at a difficult time for the White House as some Republican lawmakers have become more vocal about doubts that Iraq is on the right path. The latest reported fatalities include a soldier killed Wednesday afternoon in southern Baghdad and nine soldiers and a Marine who were killed in and around the capital Tuesday.

White House spokesman Tony Snow said Tuesday that the recent spate of violence would not affect President Bush's outlook on the war.

"No, his strategy is to win. The president understands not only the difficulty of it, but he grieves for the people who have served with valor," Snow said in Washington. "But as everybody says correctly, we've got to win. And that comes at a cost."

U.S. commanders cautioned at the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in late September that a spike in violence was almost certain. Violence surged in the three previous Ramadans since the invasion, and U.S. commanders said they expected about a 20 percent increase in violence this time.

The U.S. military reported a daily average of 36.1 attacks in Baghdad for the first 16 days of Ramadan, a spike from the daily average of 28.1 attacks during the previous six weeks. The number of attacks has skyrocketed in the capital since early June, when there were 22.3 attacks per day.



Situation expected to worsen

Maj. Gen. William Caldwell, a military spokesman in Baghdad, told reporters last week that commanders on the ground "assume it will still get worse before it gets better" and that violence likely would increase in the last days of Ramadan.

Caldwell also attributed the increase in attacks to the aggressive posture of U.S. and Iraqi forces in the capital. U.S commanders have moved thousands of U.S. troops to Baghdad from elsewhere in the country in an attempt to curb sectarian strife.

What is unclear is how much of the violence against U.S. troops can be attributed to militias, such as the Mahdi Army, and how much has come from anti-American insurgents.

In recent weeks, militias have had at least a couple of fierce scraps with coalition forces. But in western Anbar province, a Sunni stronghold, attacks against U.S. forces remain solely the work of anti-American insurgents, said Lt. Col. Bryan Salas, a Marine spokesman.

"Most of the violence comes from Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda-paid thugs that work to destabilize the rule of law in the province in order to maintain their organized criminal activities," Salas wrote in an e-mail, replying to a Tribune query.

Retired Col. G.I. Wilson, a Marine who served two tours in Iraq and has written on counterinsurgency and unconventional warfare, said pushing troops from Anbar and elsewhere to calm Baghdad could have disastrous consequences.

The redistribution of U.S. troops will allow the insurgency to regenerate in Anbar, which in turn will allow insurgents greater freedom to travel and bolster the Baghdad fighting, Wilson said.

"We're concentrating on the urban areas and giving up the countryside," Wilson said. "Sound familiar? Remember Vietnam?"

The latest violence has hit Iraqi civilians even harder than U.S. forces. According to The Associated Press, October is on the way to being the deadliest month for Iraqis since April 2005. In October, 767 Iraqis have been killed in war-related violence, an average of 45 a day.



Latest U.S. casualties

The 11 U.S. troops killed Tuesday and Wednesday died in a series of attacks using roadside bombs and small-arms fire.

A soldier with the Multi-National Division-Baghdad was gunned down about 12:30 p.m. Wednesday in southern Baghdad. Six other soldiers from the division were killed in a span of about six hours Tuesday.

Four of those soldiers were killed early Tuesday morning, when a roadside bomb struck their vehicle west of the capital. Less than three hours later, another soldier from the division suffered fatal wounds when his patrol came under small-arms fire in northern Baghdad. A roadside bomb killed another soldier from the division north of the capital.

Three Task Force Lightning soldiers were killed and another was wounded in Diyala province, north of the capital. A Marine assigned to Regimental Combat Team 7 died from wounds suffered in Anbar, the military reported.

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amadhani@tribune.com

shedges@tribune.com