Stroger, Peraica tied - Large block of undecideds holds key to race

Stroger, Peraica tied - Large block of undecideds holds key to race
By Mickey Ciokajlo and Robert Becker
Copyright © 2006, Chicago Tribune
Published October 16, 2006


Only weeks before Election Day, the race for Cook County Board president is in a virtual tie with more than one in five voters still undecided between Democrat Todd Stroger and Republican Tony Peraica, a new Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll shows.

Stroger leads Peraica 39 percent to 36 percent in the survey, which has an error margin of 5 percentage points. The poll of 481 likely Cook County voters was conducted Oct. 8-11.

The number of undecided voters--22 percent--shows the race is still very fluid as the Nov. 7 election nears.

The poll found Stroger, the son of former board President John Stroger, has nearly universal name recognition. But it also showed Peraica has had some success chipping away at Stroger's Democratic base.

It's been 40 years since a Republican won the County Board presidency. But Stroger may be weakened by the campaign Forrest Claypool waged against his father in the March primary and by misgivings over the way Democratic leaders selected Stroger for the November ballot after his father retired.

The new poll found that 21 percent of self-described Democrats said they would vote for the Republican.

Diane Lauer, 63, said she would vote for Peraica, though she's a Democrat. Lauer said she didn't believe in politicians "turning over" a political office to their children--a long-standing tradition in local and state politics.

"Let's put a stop to it," said Lauer, who lives on Chicago's Southwest Side.

The core support for Peraica, a county commissioner from Riverside, comes from the suburbs, where he holds a 48 percent to 28 percent edge over Stroger. But in the city, Stroger holds a two-to-one advantage over Peraica--50 percent to 25 percent.

Though there are more registered voters in suburban Cook County than in the city, Chicagoans traditionally turn out in higher numbers on Election Day. Todd Stroger is the alderman from the South Side's 8th Ward.

The March Democratic primary election broke largely along racial lines, with John Stroger winning by 7 percentage points over Claypool, even though he suffered a stroke and spent the final week of the campaign in a hospital bed.

Blacks back Stroger

The poll shows that three out of every four African-Americans said they would vote for Todd Stroger, who is black, while Peraica drew 9 percent support from blacks. An additional 14 percent of African-Americans were undecided.

"Frankly, I thought that his father did a pretty good job as president, and I kind of have the feeling he was a good teacher," said Ivory Payton, 72, who is black and lives on Chicago's South Side.

Among white voters, half of them backed Peraica, who is white. An additional 24 percent backed Stroger and 24 percent were undecided.

The poll shows about half of Cook County voters approved of John Stroger's job as board president. Among city residents, Stroger's approval rating was 60 percent.

But John Stroger's high marks do not automatically transfer to his son.

"The father did good," John Komperda, 72, a white, retiree from Chicago's Northwest Side, said of John Stroger. "About these other two guys, I really don't know much about them."

The poll found Peraica was only known by about 70 percent of county voters. Among those who had heard of him, 22 percent viewed him favorably and 15 percent had an unfavorable opinion. Another 34 percent had no opinion.

Unfavorable opinion Although the survey showed Todd Stroger was far better known to voters than Peraica, more voters viewed the Democrat unfavorably than favorably. One third had an unfavorable opinion of Stroger, while 26 percent viewed him favorably. An additional 37 percent had no opinion. Unfavorable attitudes toward Stroger were highest in the suburbs, among whites and voters who said they were independents.

Stroger's unfavorable rating may be a reflection of the manner in which he was selected as the Democratic nominee and the way his father's illness was handled with the public.

For months, Todd Stroger acted as the family spokesman after his father's stroke and disclosed little information about his father's condition. Through a letter, John Stroger announced on June 30 that he would retire and remove his name from the ballot. Eighteen days later, with little consideration of other potential candidates, Democratic Party leaders slated Todd Stroger to run against Peraica.

Some fellow Democrats questioned Todd Stroger's credentials, and some felt that he was only selected because of his name and pedigree.

Peraica has made reforming county government a cornerstone of his campaign. The poll shows, however, that voters make virtually no distinction between the candidates on the reform issue.

Asked who would be more likely to reform county government, 31 percent said Peraica, 29 percent said Stroger and 20 percent said neither.

Though the poll results show the race to be even, history suggests a Peraica victory would be an upset against a still-potent Democratic organization.

The last credible Republican campaign for county board president was in 1998, when Circuit Court Clerk Aurelia Pucinski switched parties to challenge John Stroger's first re-election.

A Tribune poll conducted one month before the election showed Stroger with an 8 percentage point lead. Two weeks later, a poll showed that the lead had widened to 17 percentage points and on Election Day Stroger beat Pucinski by a ratio of nearly 2-1.

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mciokajlo@tribune.com

rxbecker@tribune.com