Support ebbing for Bush strategy in Iraq - ‘Stay the course’ strategy crumbles

Support ebbing for Bush strategy in Iraq - ‘Stay the course’ strategy crumbles
By Edward Luce and Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Published: October 20 2006 21:23 | Last updated: October 21 2006 00:35


Support for George W. Bush’s strategy of “staying the course” in Iraq appears to be crumbling, with a growing number of fellow Republicans and senior military figures openly questioning how long the US can sustain its presence.

The US president got a jolting reminder of the deteriorating situation when the Mahdi army of hardline Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr took control of the southern city of Amara. The localised putsch raised more questions over the stability of Iraq’s coalition government under Nouri al-Maliki, who is nominally supported by the Sadrist group which carried it out.

It follows some of the worst violence Iraq has seen since the US-led invasion, with more than 100 civilian deaths a day over the past three weeks and more than 70 US military casualties. Major General William Caldwell, US military spokesman in Baghdad, acknowledged on Thursday that the strategy of “clear and hold” in Baghdad was failing.

Mr Bush conceded on Friday that he was increasingly flexible about America’s military strategy. In the past few weeks he has abandoned talk of achieving “victory” in Iraq – previously a stock-in-trade of presidential announcements. ‘‘We are constantly adjusting tactics so we can achieve our objectives,” Mr Bush said. “And right now, it’s tough.”

Domestic pressure on him is mounting ahead of a widely predicted Republican defeat in the November 7 midterm elections.

“We are now way past the tipping point on the ground in Iraq,” said Gary Samore at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “But it is doubtful there will be any change of course until we see the results of the mid-term elections.”

Mr Bush’s difficulties have been exacerbated by growing dissent in his party, with Republican congressional candidates increasingly distancing themselves from the “stay the course” line. In what analysts see as a sign of desperation, some even support a widely-distrusted plan to partition Iraq into separate Kurdish, Shia and Sunni entities. Kay Bailey Hutchison, a Texas Republican, described the situation in Iraq as “chaos”.

Attention is increasingly focused on the Iraq Study Group, an independent body led by James Baker, the former secretary of state, and Lee Hamilton, a former Democratic lawmaker, which is expected to recommend a drastic change of course. This week Mr Bush indicated he would take its findings very seriously and some in Washington think it could lead to the departure of Donald Rumsfeld, defence secretary, soon after the polls.

“A lot rides on the outcome of the elections,” an ISG member said on Friday night. “If the Democrats win, the pressure on Mr Bush to start drawing down the troops could be overwhelming. If the Republicans retain control of Congress, you could see more US troops sent there in a last-ditch effort to stabilise the violence.”