Time running out for US to contain the conflict

Time running out for US to contain the conflict
By Guy Dinmore and Roula Khalaf
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Published: October 20 2006 03:00 | Last updated: October 20 2006 03:00



When Nouri al-Maliki was nominated by Iraq's Shia Islamist coalition to head the new government in April, Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, hailed him as "a strong figure, capable of getting things done".

The US had lobbied for months to persuade the ineffectual Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the former leader, to give up his own bid for the job. And it hoped that a more decisive prime minister heading a national unity government including the disgruntled Sunni minority would contain the bloodshed in Iraq.

Six months later, however, as sectarian violence rages in Baghdad, the Sunni insurgency persists and emboldened Shia militias expand their control, the Bush ad-ministration is showing signs of frustration with the Maliki government.

Officials in Washington say they still fully support the prime minister and scoff at rumours in Baghdad that they are seeking a replacement. President George W. Bush is said to be in telephone contact with Mr Maliki every two weeks.

But officials are also urging Mr Maliki to take the hard decisions they had expected from him. As one senior official told the FT this week: "The [Iraqi] government has said the right things, articulated visions - but the rhetoric needs to be matched by action."

The US is hoping a more credible political programme will emerge out of Baghdad before a United Nations-backed conference on an "international compact" planned for November and designed to enlist financial support for the country.

More specifically, US officials have been urging a more forceful crackdown against death squads and Shia militias while advocating a more convincing approach to reaching out to the Sunni minority. According to the senior US official, this would include a broad and comprehensive amnesty and a change to the once sweeping policy of keeping former Ba'athists out of the public administration.

While the Iraqi government still considers the insurgency, dominated by Ba'athists and Jihadis, as the main menace, US officials have been saying that sectarian violence - causing on average 100 deaths a day - and the militias are an even more potent threat.

"Although the insurgency remains lethal, they [the insurgents] don't pose a strategic threat to the future," said the senior US official. "The sectarian violence and the associated role of militias, death squads and criminal gangs - that is the strategic threat to Iraq."

Iraqi government officials complain that their government has fallen victim to political bickering in Washington ahead of the mid-term congressional elections, in which the conflict in Iraq could contribute to a Republican defeat.

To be sure, the tensions between Washington and Baghdad have been aggravated by domestic pressure on the Bush administration.

With Iraq's democratic transition now completed, Washington can no longer count on hopeful images of voting Iraqis to counter the daily carnage.

Instead, growing alarm over Iraq's drift has led to the Iraq Study Group, set up by Congress and headed by James Baker, the former secretary of state, and Lee Hamilton, a former Democratic congressman.

The group is to make recommendations on a way out of the Iraq imbroglio after the elections.

Mr Maliki has been caught between the US and the pressures from the Shia Islamist parties that brought him to power. These parties control the biggest militias and their focus is on crushing the insurgency.

In June the prime minister unveiled a national reconciliation plan that opened the door to negotiations with insurgent groups and pledged to offer a limited amnesty to militants willing to lay down their arms.

Yet Iraqi officials say there is little appetite in Baghdad for a sweeping amnesty, which they claim would embolden insurgents. Conferences of national reconciliation that had been envisaged as a platform for dialogue with insurgents have been put on hold.

Meanwhile, a new security plan for Baghdad involving more US troops and designed to retake control of neighbourhoods controlled by militias has faltered. Some of the areas cleared have seen a resurgence of sectarian killings. Iraqi officials say Washington has unreasonable expectations.

"We understand the frustrations but we think they're getting a bit impatient. The people in the US want to undo the mistakes of the last three years and they want to do it in two months," says a senior official.

The Sunni have been brought into the government, he adds, yet insurgent violence has escalated. "There are wrong premises - we strongly believe the key challenge is the Ba'athists and the takfiris [the jihad-is]," says the Iraqi official.

Officials in Baghdad also say the government is making progress that is sometimes less visible. One senior security official says the government is in advanced talks with Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shia cleric, on disbanding the Mahdi army.

The White House yesterday defended Mr Maliki's initiatives this week, including his sacking of two police commanders and his separate meetings on Wednesday with Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the spiritual leader of the Shia, and Mr Sadr.

US officials have been warning that time is running out to contain the conflict. But with US leverage over Iraqi leaders now considerably reduced, it is far from clear that Washington has the ability to pull Iraq back from the brink.