Bush sidelined as defeat looms

Bush sidelined as defeat looms
By Edward Luce and Caroline Daniel in Washington
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Published: October 18 2006 20:06 | Last updated: October 18 2006 20:06



George W. Bush used to win elections for Republicans. But with the exception of private fund-raising events, at which he still excels, most of the US president’s fellow Republicans are now pretending he does not exist.

With fewer than three weeks to go before Americans vote in midterm Congressional elections, Mr Bush’s approval ratings are even lower than those of his colleagues, whose defeat to the opposition Democrats next month is now widely assumed. Republicans have controlled the House of Representatives since 1994 and the Senate since 2002.

According to the Congress Daily, Mr Bush has appeared on platforms with Republican candidates only 15 times since the start of August compared with 29 times over the same period in 2002 – the last midterm elections, which his party won decisively. “What candidates want is Bush’s fundraising not his presence,” said Chuck Schumer, Democratic senator for New York. “Rare is the Republican who wants to stand next to him in public.”

The relative absence of the president from the campaign trail bears a striking resemblance to the way Tony Blair, UK prime minister, was all but removed from Labour’s European election campaign a year before the 2005 general election. Though Mr Blair went on to win that election, Labour’s vote slumped.

Such is the sense of gloom in Republican ranks that party leaders are openly admitting the possibility of defeat on November 7. There may be an element of managing expectation, but such doom-mongering is previously unheard of for the Republicans.

On Monday, both Dick Cheney, US vice-president, and Mitt Romney, outgoing governor of Massachusetts, who is tipped as a Republican presidential frontrunner for the 2008 election, conceded the possibility the Democrats could win the House.

Some are even contemplating a Democrat clean sweep of both chambers. The Democrats need to win just 15 more seats in the 435-member house to gain a majority and add six more in the senate where 33 of the chamber’s 100 seats are up for grabs.

Polling shows that the level of motivation among Democratic voters is far higher than among Republicans.

And swing voters are turning to the Democrats. Even the mid-western state of Ohio, which proved critical to Mr Bush’s 2004 presidential victory, is set to turn Democrat “blue”, according to recent polls.

“If you look at what independent voters say about Iraq, the state of economy, and the recent scandals in Congress then they are all tilting Democrat,” said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster.

The consequence is that for the first time in years, Republican hopes now hang less on the party’s ability to win the argument but on its impressive war chest and famed ability to get out its own vote.

The financial edge over the Democrats is substantial. “We have a $56m advantage,” said Ken Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee.