N. Korea plans to test nuke - Pyongyang cites `U.S. threat of aggression'

N. Korea plans to test nuke - Pyongyang cites `U.S. threat of aggression'
By Anthony Faiola and Dafna Linzer
Copyright © 2006, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post, and AP
Published October 4, 2006

TOKYO -- North Korea declared Tuesday that it would conduct a nuclear test to bolster its defenses against the United States, raising tensions with its neighbors and threatening to dramatically change the region's power dynamics.

Though North Korea has previously said it possesses nuclear bombs--U.S. intelligence officials have estimated it could have as many as 11--a test would force the U.S., China, Japan and South Korea to deal far more harshly with the North Koreans, analysts said.

A test would be a "very provocative act," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said during a visit to Cairo. It would create a "qualitatively different situation on the Korean Peninsula" that would spill over into the entire region, she said. Rice declined to predict what the U.S. response might be.

In a statement issued through the official KCNA news service, North Korea's Foreign Ministry said the government will "conduct a nuclear test under conditions where safety is firmly guaranteed." The statement did not say when the test might occur but added that the North's "nuclear weapons will serve as reliable war deterrent for protecting the supreme interests of the state and the security of the Korean nation from the U.S. threat of aggression."

The declaration comes after news reports in recent months, based on intelligence findings, that the secretive communist state might be preparing a test site in its barren northeast. Analysts greeted the reports with some skepticism, partly because North Korea is widely known for brinkmanship.

High-level officials from the United States, Japan, South Korea and China immediately began exchanging calls Tuesday to discuss a response, Asian diplomatic sources said.

These countries have been part of six-party talks trying to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear program. Large numbers of intelligence analysts and policymakers who usually split their time among a host of issues were devoted Tuesday exclusively to the North Korean statement.

South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun urged a "cool-headed and stern" response, his office said. Roh will hold summits with the leaders of Japan and China next week, his office said Wednesday.

China "hopes that the North Korean side will keep calm and restrained on the nuclear test issue," a Foreign Ministry spokesman said Wednesday.

The reaction was especially sharp in Japan, which sees itself as a primary target of North Korean aggression. "If they conduct a nuclear test, it will not be forgiven," Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, said Tuesday night.

Before his election last week, Abe suggested that Tokyo should study whether Japan's constitution would allow a pre-emptive strike on North Korean missile bases.

Several analysts and diplomats said a test would mean North Korea's absolute ruler, Kim Jong Il, had played his last card in the standoff over the country's nuclear program.

"North Korea's final goal is survival, and a test is their final option," said Ahn Yinhay, professor of international relations at Korea University in Seoul. "Given the current situation--the enormous pressure from the U.S.' hard-line policy --the North Koreans may think they have no other means to try to get out of this deadlock. They may think they have nothing else to lose."

Many analysts say there would be a great deal to lose. A nuclear test would make it far more difficult for Pyongyang's chief benefactors--China and South Korea--to continue to provide billions of dollars' worth of economic aid and trade, money that has helped Kim prop up his government.

Lee Sang Deuk, vice speaker of the South Korean National Assembly, said last month that in late August, intelligence agencies had detected unusual movements of troops and equipment around a complex of caves believed to contain a nuclear test site. A U.S. official confirmed that there had been signs of an impending test other than Tuesday's statement.

One concern among U.S. officials is the potential reaction by Japan. U.S. analysts have worried for years that a North Korean nuclear test might lead Japan to break with decades of non-proliferation commitments and speed toward its own weapons capability.

Frederick Jones, spokesman for President Bush's National Security Council, shared White House concerns in prepared comments that said a test "would severely undermine our confidence in North Korea's commitment to denuclearization and to the Six Party Talks and would pose a threat to peace and security in Asia and the world."

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North Korea's nuclear monologue

1993: North Korea says it will quit the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, later suspending its withdrawal.

Aug. 31, 1998: North Korea fires a Taepodong-1 missile over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean.

October 2002: North Korea tells a visiting U.S. delegation that it has a nuclear arms program.

Jan. 10, 2003: North Korea says it will withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty.

April 2003: North Korea says it has nuclear weapons and may test, export or use them, depending on U.S. actions.

May 2005: North Korea fires a short-range missile into the Sea of Japan.

Feb. 10, 2005: North Korea again says it has nuclear arms.

March 8, 2006: North Korea fires two short-range missiles.

June 18: North Korea vows to increase its "military deterrent" to cope with what it called U.S. attempts to provoke war.

July: North Korea launches seven missiles into the Sea of Japan, including a long-range Taepodong-2.

Sept. 26: North Korea rejects further talks on its nuclear program.

Tuesday: North Korea says it will conduct a nuclear test in the face of what it said is "the U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war."

-- Associated Press.