Crist Announces Independent Bid for Senate

Crist Announces Independent Bid for Senate
By DAMIEN CAVE
Copyright by Reuters
Published: April 29, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/29/us/politics/29cristcaucus.html?th&emc=th


MIAMI — Gov. Charlie Crist announced Thursday that he will run independently for the United States Senate, giving Florida a race that will once again make the state a gawk-worthy stage of American politics, where the country's desires, fears and conflicts play out.

Mr. Crist told supporters in his home town of St. Petersburg that his decision to leave the Republican party is "the right thing for America" and "the right thing for Florida."

"My decision to run for the U.S. Senate as a candidate without party affiliation says more about our nation and our state than it says about me," Mr. Crist said. "Unfortunately our political system is broken. I think we need a new tone in Washington."

In a six-minute speech in which he was accompanied by his family and about 250 supporters, Mr. Crist acknowledged that he was in "unchartered territory," but even the most experienced strategists here are uncertain about what to expect. Perhaps never before, they say, has there been a three-way Senate race in a major swing state, with each candidate well financed, and so much at stake in terms of the balance of power in Washington.

The usual campaign script — with candidates playing to their base in the primary, then moving to the middle in the general election — aren’t relevant anymore. The winner in November will might need as little as 34 percent of the vote, and with only 22 percent of the Florida electorate registered as neither Democrats nor Republicans, the most vital question of the race will be: How frustrated are voters with their own party, and how many will stay loyal?

“Both parties have to go out and secure their base to win,” said Steve Schale, state director for the Obama campaign in 2008. “That comes with perils, though — it is exactly what Charlie Crist wants them to do.” All three candidates portray themselves as outsiders, but each is a career politician. It is still not clear which issues will dominate the campaign (Immigration? Health care? Jobs?). President Obama’s popularity is also likely to play a significant role.

But, according to advisors to the campaigns and outside political experts, this will not be a race of just messaging. Money, campaign structure, national party input, and the wild card of unexpected mistakes all matter, even more than usual in a race of such magnitude, and each candidate has advantages and challenges to overcome. Here is how they break down at this point:

Kendrick Meek, Democrat

Biggest Advantage:

No one would seem to benefit more from a Crist run as an independent than Kendrick Meek, for one simple reason: the numbers are on his side. There are at least 650,000 more registered Democrats in Florida than Republicans, and assuming Mr. Meek wins the primary and registration continues along its expected path, that lead would amount to about two percentage points in November. If he does better with Democratic voters than either Mr. Crist or Mr. Rubio do with Republicans — and Mr. Crist does not win nearly every independent vote — Mr. Meek becomes Florida’s next senator.

“If we had told anyone we are looking seriously at Florida this time last year, they would have said, ‘what’s wrong with you?’ ” said Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “And look at how the dynamics of that race has changed.”

Biggest Challenge:

Name recognition; Though he is a congressman, Mr. Meek remains relatively unknown outside his Miami district. “Meek has been in the race for 17 months, collected 120,000 petitions and still has roughly the same name ID as he had when he started,” Mr. Schale said. He has about $3.7 million in his campaign coffers and will need much more to make himself a well-known brand. “There is a reason why very few candidates win one of the principal statewide offices on their first run,” Mr. Schale said. “He will need to spend a lot to introduce himself.”

Marco Rubio, Republican

Biggest Advantage:

Mr. Rubio’s rise from long-shot to front-runner came quickly, and he enters the race with the energetic support of Tea Party activists and the G.O.P. establishment. Republicans in Washington and Tallahassee are gunning for Mr. Crist after years of frustration with what they see as his selfish, poll-following approach — and Mr. Rubio’s campaign advisors believe that independents will either join their cause or stay away. “Current turn-out intensity among G.O.P. voters in Florida is far higher than either Democrat or independent voters, meaning independents could make up an even smaller percentage of the actual vote on Election Day,” two Rubio advisors wrote in a memo on Wednesday. “Secondly, it is a mistake to assume that independent voters are politically moderate. In fact, survey after survey this year has found that voter anger about Washington spending and the growth of government is every bit as high among independent voters as it is among Republicans.”

Biggest Challenge:

The Tea Party is not enough: Mr. Rubio has said he would not change his fiery, fiscally conservative message for the general election, but the activist wing of the Republican Party is not enough to get him to victory. There are signs that he has already moderated his approach — this week he criticized the new Arizona immigration law. If he goes too far to the middle, he angers his most ardent fans. If he does not go far enough, he may lose the swing voters in places like the Route I-4 corridor between Tampa and Orlando, where recent Florida elections have been won.

Charlie Crist, No Party Affiliation

Biggest Advantage:

Everyone knows Mr. Crist. He has served for more than a decade in public office, and his approval ratings are higher than those of some other governors in states suffering greatly from the recession. His everyman appeal (complete with flowered shirts, opposition to rate hikes from utilities and insurance companies, and “I feel your pain” expressions) now combines with his ability to say he is running against partisan extremism. And with his veto of a controversial education bill tying teacher pay to student performance, he now has a high-profile example that is already paying dividends.

Several teachers joined him on stage with him for his announcement. "We are a very loyal bunch of people," said Andy Ford, president of Florida’s largest teachers union. "A lot of people are thinking we owe him this because he stood up for us."

Biggest Challenge:

Money and infrastructure: When Senator Joseph I. Lieberman ran and won as an independent in Connecticut four years ago, he had a national fund-raising base among the Jewish community, and a trusted campaign staff. Mr. Crist, has about $7.6 million on hand but by bolting the Republican Party he loses growth potential. “It takes $20 million to be competitive and he is going to have huge defections from his fundraiser base,” said Randy Nielsen, a Republican consultant in West Palm Beach. “The turnstiles will be busier than a New York subway at 5 o’clock.” This could matter greatly down the stretch. Mr. Lieberman’s campaign, for example, focused heavily on simple logistics — recruiting poll workers and running utilitarian advertisements pointing out where he could be found on the ballot. Mr. Crist, in a state filled with older voters, may need precious dollars to do the same.

Oh, and one more thing — do not forget the wild cards

¶ What will happen with the investigation of Mr. Rubio’s use of Republican Party credit cards for personal expenses? With the I.R.S. now examining tax returns, more scrutiny can be expected.

¶ The Obama factor: The president’s approval rating in Florida inched up after health care legislation passed. How popular will the president be in November and how much will he help or hurt Mr. Meek’s candidacy.¶ The economy has been the nucleus of debate in this race, with Mr. Rubio blasting Mr. Crist for supporting the stimulus in a fight over how to get things going again. What happens if the economy improves? What happens if it declines?

¶ Finally, there is the nastiness factor. In a race this tight, and this important, nearly everything — personal attacks, negative ads and rumors — will be used to take down opponents. Which will work and which will backfire?