Republicans ‘caught in a bind’ over Bush

Republicans ‘caught in a bind’ over Bush
By Edward Luce in Ames, Iowa
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: August 10 2007 20:30 | Last updated: August 10 2007 20:30


The small crowd of mostly elderly, white Republicans applauds and laughs at Mitt Romney’s talk. Whether he is condemning birth out of wedlock, illegal immigration or the “bickering, partisan ways of Washington”, the former governor of Massachusetts has struck a chord.

At only one point in his interaction with the Republicans of Hampton, Iowa, does Mr Romney mention George W. Bush – and even then with a double-edged compliment about toppling Saddam Hussein in spite of the ensuing “bad mismanagement” of the situation in Iraq.

The unpopularity of America’s 43rd president – even among diehard churchgoing Republicans of the Midwest – is more than just a background irritant for Republicans vying to succeed him in 2009. Mr Bush is a millstone around their necks.

Unlike the Democratic party, which is significantly outshining its rival in fundraising and in the polls, Republicans have a longstanding culture of deference towards their leader in the White House.

But when their president is sinking in the eyes of the majority, it presents a sharp dilemma. “We are caught in a bind,” says a senior staffer on one of the campaigns. “We cannot attack George Bush because we would be punished for disloyalty by the party base. And we cannot endorse him because that would be suicide. So we tip-toe around.”

For the first time in recent memory, the Democrats have a disciplined field of candidates, while the Republicans are in disarray. Whereas Hillary Clinton maintains a clear frontrunner status over her two main rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards, the 10-strong Republican field is much more fluid.

In a recent opinion poll in Iowa, fewer than one in five Republicans said they were “very satisfied” with their chosen candidate compared with more than half of all Democrats.

Mr Romney is expected to win another straw poll on Saturday partly because the other two frontrunners – Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York, and John McCain, senator for Arizona – have decided not to contest it. But that is unlikely to make the picture clearer. Nor, according to strategists, would the belated entrance of Fred Thompson, former TV star and senator who has been agonising for too long about when to throw his hat into the ring.

“Republicans are used to having an heir apparent – and this time it isn’t going to happen, regardless of when Fred Thomson enters the race,” said Frank Luntz, a leading Republican consultant. “No one is looking for George Bush’s endorsement because that would harm his chances. It is very hard to see what could happen to propel one of them to the forefront.”

Another factor sapping Republican enthusiasm is the lack of a viable candidate who can rally activists behind traditional values, such as opposition to abortion, gay marriage and what Mr Romney calls the cultural “cesspool in which our children swim”.

Although Sam Brownback, the social conservative senator from Kansas, and Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas and Baptist minister, are contending, neither has lit a fire among the faithful of Iowa.

The same applies to Tommy Thomson, former governor of Wisconsin, Duncan Hunter, a hardline congressman from San Diego, and Tom Tancredo, a firebrand anti-immigrant lawmaker from Colorado.

Some Christian conservatives, such as Richard Land, a leader of the powerful Southern Baptist Convention, which speaks for many evangelicals, who account for a third of Republicans, see the fragmentation of social conservative support as an advantage. “It means candidates are competing for our vote,” said Mr Land. “That keeps values on the frontburner.”

It also means Rudy Giuliani, who is the sole Republican candidate to support a woman’s right to choose as well as gay civil union, can mop up a lot of the base that does not belong to the Christian right. Mr Giuliani is leading in the national polls although he is behind in the critical early primary and caucus states of New Hampshire and Iowa.

Mr Romney belongs to the Mormons, whom Mr Land does not consider to be Christian. “Governor Romney’s faith isn’t a deal breaker,” he says. “But he must make it clear he is running to be commander-in-chief, not pastor-in-chief.”