Final reckoning only days away for Musharraf

Final reckoning only days away for Musharraf
By Jo Johnson
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: August 14 2007 03:00 | Last updated: August 14 2007 03:00


Confronted by the gravest crisis of his eight-year rule, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf faces an ever-shrinking menu of options. In recent weeks he has spent much of his time shut away in his military camp in Rawalpindi, surrounded by self-interested advisers, increasingly intolerant of criticism and displaying signs, diplomats say, of growing insecurity.

But as the general toys with ideas such as imposing a state of emergency that would suspend elections and extend his rule, the reality is that he has just days left to find a way out of his labyrinth before a constitutional crisis paralyses Pakistan.

If Gen Musharraf proceeds with his plan to seek a new mandate from the existing state and national legislatures - themselves the product of rigged 2002 elections - he is likely to find his ability to govern severely impaired. Challenges to his legitimacy are likely to hit him on two fronts: in the courts, from a judiciary emboldened by the reinstatement of Iftikhar Chaudhry, chief justice; and on the streets, from a newly courageous civil society.

Presidential elections must be held between September 15 and October 15. The constitution forbids a general from holding political office while still serving and also for up to two years after retirement. In December 2003, Gen Musharraf finessed matters by persuading a coalition of Islamic parties to back an amendment exempting him from the restriction, initially for one year. When the December 2004 deadline expired, the exemption was extended until the end of 2007 by a rubber stamp parliament endorsed by the Supreme Court. Today it is a different story.

"This is going to be a battle," says Shafqat Mahmood, a political analyst. "Back then, the Supreme Court was not free. . . If the court now decides to disqualify him from contesting, it could lead to full martial law."

Gen Musharraf acknowledged at the weekend that he had last week come close to declaring a state of emergency, only relenting after a 2am telephone call from Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state.

Washington is keen for the isolated general to broaden his political base through an alliance with Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People's party, and to reduce his dependency on religious parties.

Relations between the government and those religious parties were disrupted by last month's raid on Islamabad's red mosque, which has prompted outrage among Islamists and a surge in suicide attacks.

"With all the suicide attacks, the sense of crisis is very acute now," says Hasan- Askari Rizvi, a Lahore-based security analyst. "[The Islamic parties] want to show that [Gen Musharraf] can no longer count on them as intermediaries with the jihadis or govern effectively without them."

Co-opting Ms Bhutto into government increasingly looks like Gen Musharraf's best chance of securing his political future. The two met in secret in Abu Dhabi late last month, but have yet to agree terms of cohabitation. Under one scenario, Gen Musharraf, in return for the PPP's support in the presidential election, would seek election as a civilian, drop corruption charges against Ms Bhutto, change the law that prevents her from seeking a third term as prime minister and allow her back to campaign for the parliamentary elections.

If Gen Musharraf refuses to put on civvies, a deal will be more complicated. Ms Bhutto is under pressure to insist he step out of uniform, but many believe she might soften.

All bets would be off under an emergency. It still cannot be ruled out: the pro-Musharraf ruling party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), a rag-bag of deserters from the PPP and Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N), has much to lose from a return of the exiled former prime ministers.

An emergency that would derail a deal with Ms Bhutto, head off a challenge to the PML(Q) from Mr Sharif and postpone parliamentary elections for a year therefore has its appeal. It could also appeal to Gen Musharraf's military instincts.

"He's really not a great strategist," says a diplomat in Islamabad. "He's a commando who, when he's in a fix, likes to blast his way out."

The coming weeks will present a new set of challenges, starting with the Supreme Court's imminent hearing of a petition demanding that Mr Sharif, the target of Gen Musharraf's 1999 coup, be immediately permitted the right to return. If that petition is accepted, the temptation to impose an emergency will undoubtedly return.

Ruling party backs president despite doubts over his talks with Bhutto

By Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad

Pakistan's president, General Pervez Musharraf, faces growing calls from within his ruling coalition to reconsider links with Benazir Bhutto, the exiled former premier, as he seeks to consolidate support for his re-election as early as next month.

News that Gen Musharraf met Ms Bhutto in Abu Dhabi last month triggered anxiety among members of the ruling PML(Q) party, who perceived a potential erosion of their power. But its leaders have also been at pains to reinforce their support for a president who has never looked weaker in his eight-year rule.

Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the PML(Q) president, is believed to have reassured Gen Musharraf of the party's complete backing.

The president also has the support of the MQM, a big regional party of Urdu-speaking immigrants from India, dominating Karachi, the southern port city.

Altaf Hussain, the MQM's leader, lives in exile in London. But he has carefully built up a party structure that has effectively blocked the rise of its opponents in Pakistan's main commercial centre. At the last count, the 342-member lower house of parliament in Islamabad had 183 pro-government deputies, while the 100-member Senate was estimated to have up to60 pro-government members.

The president's electoral college also consists of the legislatures of the four provinces - Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan and North West Frontier Province - which are stacked heavily in Gen Musharraf's favour.