Democrats See Hope for Fall in Victory in House Race

Democrats See Hope for Fall in Victory in House Race
By CARL HULSE
Copyright by The New York Times
Published: May 19, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/20/us/politics/20elect.html?th&emc=th


WASHINGTON — Congressional Democrats on Wednesday seized on their special election victory in a Pennsylvania House district and other primary results as evidence that they can stem Republican political momentum, as both parties sifted through Tuesday night’s returns for lessons to learn and mistakes to avoid heading to November.

After hearing for months that they were on the verge of losing control of the House, Democrats said the decisive victory by Mark Critz, a Democrat, in the blue-collar district formerly represented by the late John P. Murtha, showed they remain competitive in the kinds of hotly contested regions Republicans need to win to have a real chance of capturing the House.

“We are going to maintain our majority,” Representative Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland, the majority leader, said. “Obviously the president’s party historically loses seats, but we are going to lose a lot fewer than people think.”

Chastened Republicans conceded that they had made some missteps in the race and said they would make course corrections as they tried to capture Democratic swing districts, many of which have close parallels to the one retained by Democrats on Tuesday.

“We have got a lot of work to do,” said Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the House Republican leader. “I still think the environment is there. There were just some things that we should have seen that we didn’t see. But we will learn from it.”

As Republicans regrouped, they still had some fundamental forces working in their favor, including a stubbornly high unemployment rate, growing distrust of government and the tendency of the party that controls the White House to lose Congressional seats in midterm elections.

Mr. Obama has been losing support among independents and is struggling to convince voters that the benefits of his signature legislative achievements — the health care overhaul and the economic stimulus bill — will outweigh the costs and drawbacks.

Democrats say that in the Pennsylvania race, they were successful in pushing the party message that the economy is improving and that jobs are returning because of steps taken by the Democratic-controlled Congress and Mr. Obama. They say Republicans were unable to define the race around the national issues they hope will carry them in the fall, despite an effort to tie Mr. Critz to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Mr. Obama and the Democratic health care legislation.

Senator John Kerry carried the Murtha district in 2004 as the Democratic presidential nominee, but Senator John McCain won it for the Republicans in his presidential campaign four years later. This makes the district a good laboratory for both parties to hone their messages.

“Republicans test-drove their November strategy in Pennsylvania and it crashed,” said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said.

As they assessed the outcome in the House contest, as well as in Senate races in Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Arkansas, members of both parties acknowledged that they faced an angry electorate willing to take out its wrath on either party.

But each party’s officials argued that it would be their rivals who would bear the brunt of it. Democrats said Republicans were nominating overly conservative candidates who could be beaten in November. Republicans said Democrats would pay for failing to heed voter concerns and for pushing through expansive and expensive legislation over public objections.

“From my perspective, I think what people want is checks and balances instead of single-party government,” Senator John Cornyn of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said. “I think that bodes well for our chances to pick up some seats.”

One of Tuesday’s primaries was left unresolved. Senator Blanche Lincoln, Democrat of Arkansas, is headed for a June 8 runoff with a fellow Democrat, Bill Halter. The winner will face Representative John Boozman, who won the Republican nomination outright. Mr. Boozman may have an advantage over the eventual Democratic winner, who will have to spend money and time competing in the run-off.

Democrats said they believed the Republican victory in Kentucky of Rand Paul, a Tea Party favorite, had given them an opening to pick up a Republican-held Senate seat. They said Mr. Paul would face a strong challenge from Jack Conway, a Democrat who is the state’s attorney general, as well as a concerted effort by Democrats to define him as outside the mainstream. Democrats also pointed to the fact that Kentuckians voted in greater numbers in the Democratic primary than in the Republican contest.

“Paul is on record as taking some very, very extreme positions,” Representative John Yarmuth, a Kentucky Democrat, said.

Republicans said such attacks would fail.

“I have no doubt the Democratic National Committee and others will try to demonize Republican candidates as they try to demonize Tea Party participants,” Mr. Cornyn said. “Rand Paul was rewarded for running a very good campaign, very disciplined, and he obviously represents the views of about 60 percent of the primary voters in Kentucky. I think he is going to win.”

Republicans acknowledged that the election in Pennsylvania of Mr. Critz, who was to be sworn as the newest member of the House on Thursday, was certain to put a damper on the party’s exuberant talk of wrenching the House from Democratic control come November.

“I do think we will reclaim the majority,” said Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the No. 2 House Republican. “But last night is evidence of the fact that we have a lot of work to do, and we can’t get ahead of ourselves.”

Party strategists attributed the loss by Tim Burns, the Republican candidate, to high Democratic turnout caused by the intense Senate primary between Senator Arlen Specter and Representative Joe Sestak.

They say they may have also underestimated the extent to which Mr. Critz’s embrace of conservative positions on gun control, abortion and climate change legislation would insulate him with voters who might otherwise be fed up with Mr. Obama and Washington Democrats.

Still, Republicans acknowledge that the party is going to have to raise its game if it is to have a real chance to take back the House against a Democratic organization that is evidently not going to make it easy for them.

Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting.