Postwar Iraqi conflict ‘was predicted’

Postwar Iraqi conflict ‘was predicted’
By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington
Published: May 26 2007 00:35 | Last updated: May 26 2007 00:35
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007


The US intelligence community predicted before the Iraq war that an invasion would probably encourage al-Qaeda to increase terrorist attacks and attempt to regroup in Afghanistan, a key report found on Friday.

The Senate intelligence committee report into prewar intelligence on postwar Iraq comes at a sensitive time for the White House, which is trying to rally support for the increasingly unpopular war.

Based on two assessments made by the intelligence community in January 2003 and given to the White House, the report concluded that the invasion could spark internal conflict in Iraq, encourage al-Qaeda to boost terrorist operations and propel proponents of political Islam. It also concluded that an invasion would not encourage other countries to abandon programmes to develop weapons of mass destruction.

While the intelligence reports warned of increased terrorist activity following the invasion, they did estimate that “the threat from terrorism resulting from a war with Iraq, after an initial spike, probably would decline slowly over the next three to five years”.

President George W. Bush in recent months has argued that al-Qaeda is the greatest threat in Iraq, in an attempt to convince the US population of the need to stay the course in Iraq.

The US intelligence community has taken heavy criticism for the flawed intelligence over weapons of mass destruction in Iraq but many of its assessments of postwar Iraq appear to have been accurate.

According to the report, US intelligence wrote in January 2003: “A post-Saddam authority would face a deeply divided society with a significant chance that domestic groups would engage in violent conflict with each other unless an occupying force prevented them from doing so.”

The intelligence community also concluded: “The practical implementation of democratic rule would be difficult in a country with no concept of loyal opposition and no history of alternation of power.”

It also assessed that the Iraqi government would have to “walk a fine line between dismantling the worst aspects of Saddam’s police, security and intelligence forces and retaining the capability to enforce nationwide peace”.

Democrats used the report to criticise the White House.

“The intelligence community gave the administration plenty of warning about the difficulties we would face if the decision was made to go to war,” said John Rockefeller, the Democratic chairman of the Senate intelligence committee. “These dire warnings were widely distributed at the highest levels of government, and it’s clear that the administration didn’t plan for any of them.”