Financial Times Editorial Comment: Republican runners

Financial Times Editorial Comment: Republican runners
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: March 3 2007 02:12 | Last updated: March 3 2007 02:12


Competition is good for politics, as for most other fields of human endeavour. And on one level, America’s 2008 presidential campaign looks to be one of the most competitive ever: well over a dozen well-known, well-qualified and mostly well-funded Americans are already running for president – 20 months before the poll.

The American public is complaining about the ludicrously early start to the campaign, but not about the quality of the field. The pack includes a host of serious and talented people, with a wide range of views. The size and strength of the field makes this one of the most unpredictable elections ever.

But even this early in the gruelling process, one thing is becoming clear: the Republican party’s social conservative base has no overwhelming favourite in the race – and that could profoundly affect the outcome.

Senator John McCain, who has been running for president for years already, finally (if informally) declared his candidacy on late night television this week. He is the darling of the US media, but places only a distant second in opinion polls comparing potential Republican candidates (behind Rudy Giuliani, New York’s 9/11 hero).

Mr McCain is hardly the favourite of Christian conservatives, whom he once dubbed “agents of intolerance”. Many independent voters – who might otherwise prefer the maverick senator – dislike his gung-ho views on the Iraq war. The senator faces a difficult task: wooing social conservatives without looking like a hypocrite, while courting independents, distancing himself from the Iraq disaster and allaying fears that he is too old for the White House. It will be a neat trick if it works: but that is far from certain.

That does not mean Mr Giuliani has any better chance of getting nominated. He leads Republican rivals by 20 points in early polling, but it would be hard to imagine a candidate less congenial to the base: he supports gay and abortion rights, and opposes guns. The other big Republican name thus far, Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts governor, is courting activists with an anti-gay marriage campaign. But he would probably not long survive if Newt Gingrich, architect of the Republican party’s return to Congress in 1994, decided to enter the fray.

To choose any one of Messrs McCain, Giuliani or Romney, the Republicans would have to jettison some of their core values. They may be prepared to do that to retain the White House – indeed, they may have to. But it is hard to see Christian conservatives throwing in the towel just yet: they already have candidates in the field such as Mike Huckabee from Arkansas and Senator Sam Brownback from Kansas. But they are still looking for a figure of real heft who will resuscitate their revolution. That may be someone who, despite the jostling crowds heading for the starting blocks, is still back in the stables.