International Herald Tribune Editorial - Pulling back from war in the Horn of Africa

International Herald Tribune Editorial - Pulling back from war in the Horn of Africa
Copyright by The International Herald Tribune
Published: December 28, 2006


It is tempting to wink at Ethiopia's stunningly successful offensive in Somalia. It pushed back a hateful Islamic militia that was defying the United Nations, threatening to impose religious tyranny and, according to Washington, harboring international terrorists. The Bush administration quickly succumbed to temptation, lauding Ethiopia's attacks as a legitimate response to "aggression."

But if there's anything we should have learned over the past few sad years, it is that this kind of unilateral pre-emptive attack seldom solves anything, particularly when the country doing the invading is regarded as a longstanding enemy.

Somalia is a familiar kind of mess, with a weak official transitional government composed of a collection of regional clan leaders and warlords, pitted against radical Islamists who control their own militias, who have spread Taliban-like terror among the populace and who recently surrounded the seat of the transitional government at Baidoa. To halt their advance, Ethiopia's armed forces crossed an international border and routed the Islamists, who have largely disappeared from public view.

It's hardly surprising that there was little international outcry. But while moderate forces in Somalia have been appalled by the brutal intolerance of Islamist leaders who have threatened to behead people for not praying five times a day, they are unlikely to embrace Ethiopian soldiers as a good alternative. Ethiopia and Somalia have long been rivals, and went to war in the late 1970s over a land dispute. If the transitional government seems propped up by foreign invaders, it would lose whatever popular support it has now.

America squandered its influence in Somalia by supporting some particularly horrible warlords to challenge the Islamist radicals. But it still has considerable sway over Ethiopia.

Washington should use that influence to push for a swift cessation of hostilities, lest the conflict pull in neighboring countries and explode over the entire region. The resulting chaos would create a refugee crisis and open a new terrorist recruiting hub. The Islamists have threatened suicide attacks and called for help from foreign fighters in a "holy war" that has already drawn thousands of Muslim fighters from Eritrea, Yemen, Libya and Syria.

The United Nations is unhappy about the Ethiopian incursion, but it needs to demonstrate that it has a good alternative. The Security Council must meet urgently to find ways to replace Ethiopian troops with a neutral international force and keep the violence from spreading to other countries.

Rather than trying to marginalize the Islamic militias and the huge clan they represent, the international community should try to harness this moment to push for unity talks while the Islamists are weak and the transitional government has attained a more equal standing.